Hey, friends. You know I don’t put much stock in draws as they hardly ever play out the way you expect, but I will indulge you. The first question was on whose side Nadal would be, and unfortunately it turns out he is on Roger’s side. And it pisses me off that it always seems to be the case in Melbourne. I don’t like to talk about rigged draws because there is no proof, but sometimes you wonder. And what pisses me off even more is that Nadal got the easiest quarter final opponent of the top four in Birdshit. Birdshit is his absolute bitch and if he ever needed Berdych in his quarter it was now. Also, Roger got Murray in his quarter who is one of the top two most difficult quarter-final opponents for the top four. The other being Nishikori who is in Stan’s quarter. I am just overall pissed off with this draw but like I said it hardly ever plays out the way you imagine and Nadal, for instance, could lose before the semis.
I find it hard to imagine to whom though. Maybe first round to Youzhny if Youzhny plays a blinder but after that it’s hard to see him lose. Maybe Rosol but once Nadal has two wins under his belt he already becomes hard to stop. Nadal lost his first match in Doha to Berrer, but he did win the doubles title with Monaco which would have already helped his confidence. If Nadal makes fourth round I don’t see him losing to Gasquet or Anderson who is both massive chokers. If Anderson wins it would be the biggest win of his life anyway. Then should Nadal play Birdshit it is almost impossible for him to lose. Birdshit will do whatever it takes to lose to his hero. So it is difficult to see Nadal lose before the semis but not impossible. If Roger does play Nadal in the semis then he will just have to win. His record against Nadal in slams is poor and given his new found mental strength and Nadal’s lack of tennis it would provide a good opportunity to get one back.
But of course, there is no guarantee Roger will make semis either. His path to the title is Lu, Monaco/Bolelli, Chardy, Karlovic/Kyrgios/Robredo, Dimitrov/Murray, Nadal/Berdych, Djokovic/Stan. That is a pretty tough draw right there. The first three rounds are not that tough but then it gets difficult. After my last post, some people have brought up the fatigue factor for Roger. My view was optimistic about it all, but I suppose he could feel the effects of not having taken much of a break after the long 2014 season. It’s not gonna change my optimistic outlook though. I’m sure some Fedfans have thrown in the towel as far as winning the title goes after having seen the draw, saying that Roger is too tired to get through it. Personally I don’t see much excitement in taking such a stance. As I said in my last post Roger’s game is in peak shape now and if he can conserve some energy early on he will have his chances.
He also said in an interview which someone posted on my blog that he is actually intentionally playing more at the recommendation of Edberg, with the argument that as you age it is easier for the body to keep playing than to take long breaks and come back. He is also focusing on playing more points in practice. Someone also made the remark that sometimes Roger gets an easy draw and loses while a hard draw can work out. It once again comes down to the fact that draws don’t mean much and that it is useless to look much further than the next round, which for Roger is against Lu. As long as Roger keeps focusing on what is in front of him and takes care of it well he will have his chances at #18. I have already said I am quietly confident and I am not concerned about the draw. As long as Roger keeps playing the way he has been playing I believe in his chances.