The strength in depth of men's tennis ensures there are no guarantees on the ATP Tour.
The PIF ATP Rankings offer a tangible way to assess the order of things in the men’s game, yet the 2024 season nonetheless offered plenty of seismic upsets. There were results that rocked top stars, went against the form book and catapulted young players' names into the global spotlight.
As part of our annual in-review series, ATPTour.com counts down the five most unexpected upsets of the year. On Tuesday we'll look at the biggest upsets at the Grand Slams.
[ATP APP] 5) Madrid R2: Monteiro d. Tsitsipas 6-4, 6-4
Not even a Top 10 opponent in red-hot form was enough to stop Thiago Monteiro when he was in full flow at the Mutua Madrid Open.
After coming through qualifying at the ATP Masters 1000 event, Monteiro stunned Stefanos Tsitsipas with a clinical, clean-hitting display. Tsitsipas entered the pair’s maiden Lexus ATP Head2Head meeting with a 10-1 record for the year on clay after winning Monte-Carlo and reaching the final in Barcelona, but the Greek was powerless to deny the inspired Monteiro from notching the fourth Top 10 win of his career.
The Brazilian’s triumph against the then-No. 7 in the PIF ATP Rankings was placed in even greater contrast by the fact he had lost in the first round at an ATP Challenger Tour event to then-World No. 255 Jaime Faria just one week prior. Monteiro’s upset was ultimately a demonstration of just how quickly fortunes can change in tennis.
“Every week you have a new opportunity,” said Monteiro, who went on to reach the third round in Madrid before making the fourth round in Rome, also as a qualifier. “These past few weeks I wasn’t feeling really good on the court. I was trying to do well at Challengers, but it didn’t work. I just kept up the hard work, day by day. Even when I was not feeling good and not winning matches, I kept believing in myself, and this week it has paid off.”
4) Rio de Janiero R1: Fonseca d Fils 6-0, 6-4
How to capture the immediate attention of your home fans, Joao Fonseca style.
Competing as a No. 655-ranked wild card at the Rio Open presented by Claro, the 17-year-old charged past seventh seed Arthur Fils in just his second tour-level match. Fonseca, who became the first player born in 2006 to win an ATP Tour match with his commanding victory in his hometown, fell to his knees and put his head in his hands after securing a famous win.
"I am so happy. It couldn't be better than this to get my first win 10 minutes away from my house and with all my friends, all my family watching," said the Brazilian, who beat Cristian Garin in his next match before falling to Mariano Navone in the quarter-finals. "It's very special… I was focused on making every ball. Obviously, I was nervous, I was shaking, but I wanted so much to win, I made it."
The quality of opponent Fonseca had beaten was only emphasised across the rest of 2024, when Fils lifted ATP 500 crowns in Hamburg and Tokyo and rose to a career-high No. 20 in the PIF ATP Rankings. The pair may even meet again before 2024 is done, with Fonseca (now at a career-high No. 145 himself) joining Fils in the lineup for December’s Next Gen ATP Finals presented by PIF.
3) Shanghai QF: Machac d. Alcaraz 7-6(5), 7-5
Carlos Alcaraz was on a late-season 12-match tear that had seen him go unbeaten across the Davis Cup Finals Group Stage, the Laver Cup, and the bulk of the 2024 Asian swing. Then the No. 2 in the PIF ATP Rankings ran into Tomas Machac at the Rolex Shanghai Masters.
The 24-year-old Czech had enjoyed an impressive season up to that point. He reached his maiden ATP Masters 1000 quarter-final in March in Miami, upset Novak Djokovic en route to his maiden ATP Tour final in May in Geneva, and had returned to a joint career high of No. 33 in the PIF ATP Rankings ahead of Shanghai. Yet the way he blew away the in-form Alcaraz at the Chinese Masters 1000 was nonetheless something to behold.
Machac powered 20 winners past the Spaniard in the opening set alone, and later kept his cool to seal victory after Alcaraz reclaimed an early break in the second set. The Czech, who became the fourth lowest-ranked semi-finalist in Shanghai tournament history, had given another reminder of his potential to push further towards the top of the game.
“I knew that the level of my tennis would be great because I am playing the best right now, for sure,” said Machac, who finished his season at a career-high World No. 25. “I beat Tommy Paul [in my] last match with an unbelievable performance. With these types of players, I have to play this level otherwise it’s 6-2, 6-3 [and] you go home, there is no other option. I am happy I managed to play like this for two sets.”
2) Doha QF: Mensik d. Rublev 6-4, 7-6(6)
Jakub Mensik’s emergence as one the ATP Tour’s brightest talents has happened gradually across the past 18 months. Yet it was arguably his maiden Top 5 win, clinched in style against Andrey Rublev at February’s Qatar ExxonMobil Open, that cemented his status as a bona fide star in the making.
The 18-year-old Mensik downed Alejandro Davidovich Fokina and former World No. 1 Andy Murray in Doha to reach his maiden ATP Tour quarter-final. His next opponent, Rublev, was the owner of an impressive record at the ATP 250: he reached the final there on debut in 2018 before winning the trophy in 2020. Competing as the World No. 5 and top seed, Rublev was undoubtedly the favourite in his maiden Lexus ATP Head2Head meeting with a #NextGenATP star.
As it was, Mensik had no trouble bringing his huge game to one of the biggest matches of his young career. The Czech, who used a Next Gen Accelerator Programme wild card to gain entry into the event, saved all six break points he faced in the match, according to Infosys ATP Stats, and sealed a straight-sets victory that guaranteed his rise into the Top 100 of the PIF ATP Rankings for the first time.
"It's just been an incredible week from the beginning. I played very well and I knew I could play with the big players,” said Mensik, who reached the final in Doha before falling to Karen Khachanov. “It's an amazing feeling to reach the semi-finals after beating those good players.”
1) Indian Wells R3: Nardi d. Djokovic 6-4, 3-6, 6-3
Luca Nardi may have felt he had already 'won' simply by setting a third-round clash with World No. 2 Novak Djokovic at the BNP Paribas Open. After losing in qualifying, the Italian was granted a main-draw spot as a lucky loser, immediately capitalised by defeating Zhang Zhizhen for his first Top 50 win, and then set about preparing to take on his childhood idol Djokovic in the third round.
Things only got better from there for Nardi in Indian Wells. Competing as the World No. 123, he stunned the tennis world by sinking the five-time champion in a see-saw battle in Tennis Paradise. The 20-year-old outhit Djokovic by 16 winners to two in the final set to snap Djokovic’s 11-match winning streak at Masters 1000 events.
Nardi was just the ninth player from outside the Top 100 to defeat a Top 2 opponent since 2015. His shock win helped him surge into the Top 100 for the first time after Indian Wells, while it also made his name instantly familiar with tennis fans the world over.
"I think that before this night no one knew me," Nardi said after recording just his fifth tour-level match win. "I hope that the crowd enjoyed the game. I'm super happy with this one."
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