Jannik Sinner is the comeback kid.
The 23-year-old Italian has dropped the opening set 14 times over the past 12 months. He has remarkably won 11 of those matches. An ATP Infosys Beyond The Numbers analysis of the Top 100 in the PIF ATP Rankings over the past 52 weeks identifies Sinner as the only player to possess a winning record after failing to win the opening set of his match.
It’s a stunning statistic that positions the 23-year-old Italian head and shoulders above his rivals with the ability to turn around matches that were initially not going his way. The table below shows the leading 10 players from the past 52 weeks coming back to win the match after dropping the opening set.
Past 52 weeks. Winning The Match After Losing The First Set
.table_component { overflow: auto; width: 100%; } .table_component table { border: 1px solid #dededf; height: 100%; width: 100%; table-layout: fixed; border-collapse: collapse; border-spacing: 1px; text-align: center; } .table_component caption { caption-side: top; text-align: left; } .table_component th { border: 1px solid #dededf; background-color: #eceff1; color: #000000; padding: 5px; } .table_component td { border: 1px solid #dededf; background-color: #ffffff; color: #000000; padding: 5px; }| Player | % Won | W/L |
|---|---|---|
| J. Sinner | 78.6% | 11-3 |
| A. Zverev | 50.0% | 18-18 |
| C. Alcaraz | 47.1% | 8-9 |
| A. De Minaur | 46.2% | 12-14 |
| H. Medjedovic | 45.5% | 5-6 |
| H. Hurkacz | 41.7% | 10-14 |
| B. Shelton | 40.6% | 13-19 |
| J. Shang | 40.0% | 6-9 |
| D. Medvedev | 38.5% | 10-16 |
| T. Paul | 36.8% | 7-12 |
Sinner is the only player with a winning record after losing set one. Alexander Zverev is the only player to at least break even, winning 18 matches while also losing 18. The rest of the pack are all in a deficit.
Sinner’s most recent comeback after losing the opening set was in the round of 32 at the ATP Masters 1000 in Shanghai against Tomas Martin Etcheverry. The Argentinian took the opening set 7-6(3), primarily by winning 55 per cent (6/11) second serve return points. But Etcheverry would only be able to win 41% (7/17) against Sinner’s second serve in the second and third sets.
Sinner also lost the opening set and won the match one other time on the Asian Swing this year, defeating Nicolas Jarry 4-6, 6-3, 6-1 in the round of 32 at the China Open in Beijing. Once again, it was performance around second serves that turned the match in the Italian’s favor. Sinner won 57% (4/7) second serve return points in the opening set. But he applied the blowtorch to this area in the second and third sets, with Etcheverry only winning two of 19 second serve points in the remaining two sets.
[ATP APP]It’s interesting to note that no player in the modern era has a winning record over his career after losing the first set. Rod Laver is the only player that won 50% (92/92), with Novak Djokovic in second place (44.5%), followed by Bjorn Borg (43.7%), Pete Sampras (43.6%) and Ivan Lendl (43.4%).
Sinner is almost untouchable after winning the opening set, racking up a 62-4 (94%) record over the past 52 weeks. Novak Djokovic leads the tour in this category, going a perfect 43 for 43 after winning the first set. Sinner is also the leading performer against the Top 10, notching up an impressive 17-6 record against the game’s elite.
Getting ahead of Sinner is one thing. Finishing him off is another.
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