Brad Gilbert breaks down what Fritz needs to do to upset Sinner

Entering the US Open, Taylor Fritz had never advanced past a Grand Slam quarter-final. His opponent in Sunday’s final, Jannik Sinner, is the No. 1 player in the PIF ATP Rankings and this year’s Australian Open champion.

But Brad Gilbert, who helped Coco Gauff to her first Slam trophy at last year’s US Open, does not believe Fritz’s lack of experience this deep in a major will play much of a role.

“He's been around long enough. He's played a bunch of Slams, and I feel like he's a clean ball-striker, too,” Gilbert told ATPTour.com. “I've seen some players in their first major obviously get really tight. He doesn't strike me as that. He might not win, but I don't feel like the moment is going to be too big for him.”

According to the former World No. 4, “there's no doubt that Sinner is definitely the solid favourite”. The Italian is trying to clinch his second Slam crown and take a firm grip on top spot in the battle for ATP Year-End No. 1 presented by PIF.

“But you’ve got to go out and execute,” Gilbert told ATPTour.com. “They both hit the ball really well. But who's going to control the centre of the court?

“The big thing that jumps out between the two of them is Sinner is a way better mover and way better defender… Fritz has got to be offensive-minded because they both play great offence, but Sinner can play better defence.”

So far this US Open, Fritz has won 57.5 per cent of points he has played in the 0-4 rally length. Sinner has won 58.4 per cent of those points. Both men strike early and effectively.

Gilbert believes the most important thing for Fritz will be his serve and even taking some risk on his second serve to allow him to control points.

“Sinner will make him run hard, and he cracks the second-serve return. So I do think he needs a good serving day on the first, and he's going to have to take some chances on the second,” Gilbert said. “He's just got to stay out of where Sinner is the one initiating the offence. He's got to be aggressive from the centre of the court, especially with his forehand.”

Photo: Sarah Stier/Getty Images
In his quarter-final against two-time Nitto ATP Finals champion Alexander Zverev and his semi-final against Frances Tiafoe, Fritz came up against opponents with two of the most solid backhands in the sport. Gilbert was impressed with how well Fritz handled those battles.

“I think he's been hitting his backhand as well as I've seen him,” Gilbert said. “He's been doing well backhand to backhand with every player I've seen. He did really well against Zverev and I didn't think he would do well in that matchup. So he is playing well, but I do think for him the serve is key.”

Fritz is one of the best offensive players on the ATP Tour, with an ability to control the action against most of his opponents from the baseline. Gilbert believes it is essential that Fritz is the one playing offence.

“As good as Fritz is on offence, Sinner’s offence is probably better. I've been impressed with Fritz, he's played under control all tournament, and he hits big with the forehand and his backhand is much improved. I think that's why he's playing better. His backhand is much improved,” Gilbert said. “I've been impressed, like I said, all tournament long. I thought that side, sometimes people can make progress with and I'm like, ‘Shoot, maybe I’ve got to recalibrate [my thoughts with] that shot’.”

Entering the semi-finals, Gilbert felt that if everyone remaining played their typical tennis, Sinner would emerge with the trophy. If they all play really well, Sinner would also triumph.

“My first thought was, Sinner wins six sets to zero. That was the first thought,” Gilbert said. “But I do feel like probably of the three players left that Fritz had the best shot. If he plays really well and Sinner is a little bit off, then who knows?”

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