Sinner & Medvedev square off in Turin group finale

The 2024 Nitto ATP Finals will produce its first two singles semi-finalists on Thursday, as the action in the Ilie Nastase Group concludes. Home favourite Jannik Sinner will seek to wrap up a perfect round-robin campaign when he takes on Daniil Medvedev, after Taylor Fritz and Alex de Minaur meet in the day session. All four men still have a path to qualify for the knockout rounds.

The undefeated doubles duo of Harri Heliovaara and Henry Patten will face Wesley Koolhof and Nikola Mektic in the Mike Bryan Group, while Aussies Max Purcell and Jordan Thompson meet Marcel Granollers and Horacio Zeballos.

[1] Jannik Sinner (ITA) vs. [4] Daniil Medvedev
Playing on home soil for the first time this season, Sinner is in pole position to top the group after a pair of straight-sets wins against De Minaur and Fritz. But the No. 1 in the PIF ATP Rankings could face his toughest test so far this week against Medvedev on Day 5.

Thursday's showdown will break a 7-7 tie in the pair's Lexus ATP Head2Head series. Medvedev dominated the early stages of their rivalry, winning their first six matches, but Sinner has won seven of their past eight.

"[Medvedev] has been one of my key points in evolving myself as a player, because I struggled a lot to beat him," Sinner said in Turin. "Now, every match is quite open, you never know what’s going to happen. He's a very tough opponent."

The Italian edged Medvedev in five sets in this year's Australian Open final, overcoming a red-hot start from his opponent. In that match, Medvedev also showed his ability to evolve with an ultra-aggressive game plan that stunned Sinner in the first two sets.

The pair played another five-setter at Wimbledon, where Medvedev prevailed, though Sinner beat him at the US Open and at the Miami and Shanghai ATP Masters 1000s this season.

You need to play an inch-perfect match to beat [Jannik],” Medvedev said. “From start to finish, you need to be there, you need to make him tired physically and work him out. If you are not able to do it from the start, he gets control of the match and it’s tough to break his rhythm. Very, very tough opponent, especially here in Italy."

Both players approached top form Tuesday in Turin, when Medvedev dominated De Minaur and Sinner outclassed Fritz in perhaps the highest-quality match of the week to date. Their matchup on Day 5 is what the Nitto ATP Finals is all about: two of the very best players in the world putting their very best tennis on display.

[5] Taylor Fritz (USA) vs. [7] Alex de Minaur (AUS)
Fritz and De Minaur first squared off at the professional level at the 2018 Next Gen ATP Finals, where De Minaur went on to reach the final. Six years later, they'll meet again at the Nitto ATP Finals.

Fritz has shown the sort of form that propelled him to his first US Open final through two matches in Turin. After a statement opening win against Medvedev, he gave Sinner all he could handle in a rematch of their New York final. De Minaur has yet to win a set in his Nitto ATP Finals debut, but Fritz knows the Aussie can never be counted out.

“I played Demon in the second match of this year [at the United Cup] and personally, I thought it was one of the highest levels of tennis that I’ve ever seen on the other side of the court,” he said, reflecting on his 6-4, 6-2 defeat.

De Minaur owns a 5-3 Lexus ATP Head2Head advantage against Fritz, including a 2-0 record across the 2023 and 2024 seasons. He also lauded his opponent after the Turin draw was released.

"Taylor Fritz is powerful, cool under pressure and has a great serve," he said. "He has a lot of firepower about him. He has shown what he is capable of this year."

Both men will face considerable pressure on Thursday, but De Minaur's margin for error is razor thin. The Aussie's only path to the semi-finals is a straight-sets win coupled with a straight-sets victory for Sinner against Medvedev. That would put Sinner through as the group winner and leave the other three men level at 1-2 in matches and 2-4 in sets. From there, percentage of games won would decide who advances in second place.

Doubles Action
Seventh seeds Heliovaara and Patten have matched both Sinner and the German doubles duo of Kevin Krawietz and Tim Puetz by posting a perfect 2-0 record without dropping a set this week. They meet Koolhof and Mektic knowing that winning one set will confirm their first-place finish in the Mike Bryan Group.

Aussies Purcell and Thompson occupy second place in the group at 1-1 and also control their own semi-final destiny, while Granollers and Zeballos need a win and some help in order to advance to the knockout rounds.

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